A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation 2 6 Graphical Representation of Cases of Probability - Raising Non - Causation 7 Completing the Probabilistic Analysis of

The starting point in the development of probabilistic analyses of token causation has usually been the naive intuition that, in some relevant sense, a cause raises the probability of its effect. But there are well-known examples both of non-probability-raising causation and of probabilityraising non-causation. Sophisticated extant probabilistic analyses treat many such cases correctly, but only at the cost of excluding the possibilities of direct non-probability-raising causation, failures of causal transitivity, action-at-a-distance, prevention, and causation by absence and omission. I show that an examination of the structure of these problem cases suggests a different treatment, one which avoids the costs of extant probabilistic analyses.